Everyday Murders in Mexico Fall 37% In the Sheinbaum Administration, As per Government Data

The average count of per-day killings per month in Mexico has fallen by thirty-seven percent since President Claudia Sheinbaum took office, according to fresh official data. However, public safety experts have cautioned that homicide figures may not indicate enhanced national safety.

Marked Decline in Per-Day Figures

There was an average of close to 55 murders a day in November as opposed to nearly 87 when Sheinbaum assumed the leadership in the previous September. This announcement was provided by the chief of the nation's federal safety agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s regular news conference on a recent Tuesday.

“The figures in killings that have been recorded during these past months is very notable,” the President stated, adding that in November the lowest amount of homicides were recorded for any November in the past decade.

Recent Background and Official Plan

Fierce organized crime rivalries, combined with the government’s heavily militarised operations to confront the drug gangs, have made Mexico’s homicide rate escalate in the past few years. The figure reached a maximum of 36,773 killings in 2020, as reported by the country’s official data office.

That resulted in Mexico a homicide rate over four times greater than that of the United States. From that point, killings have been on the decline, declining to 33,550 last year. Claudia Sheinbaum has attributed her public safety strategy for an ostensibly steeper decline in homicides this year.

At a press conference in August, the President declared: “We have a plan, we have tracking of the strategy, and we have specific monitoring municipality by municipality in certain cases. The plan functions. And we have to persist at it every day.”

The main components of Sheinbaum’s security plan involve:

• Strengthening Mexico’s domestic security force.
• Enhancing information gathering and investigative capabilities.
• Greater cooperation between government departments.

Expert Warnings and Statistical Limitations

Nevertheless, security analysts warned that relying on homicide numbers to draw a conclusion of peace was flawed. This is notably true given the uptick in different crimes such as forced disappearances.

“It would be very good information if this were a reduction, but I think we must not just look at the homicide data and think: ‘Alright, good,’” stated Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an expert on Mexico's organised crime. “I would be cautiously hopeful.”

Per the policy analysis organization Mexico Evalúa, murders overall dropped by more than 20% in the initial 10 months of this year compared with the same period last year. But, missing persons cases have risen by 15% and in some regions have risen by as much as 200%.

“Numbers on murders is not reliable for gauging the context of public insecurity,” argued Armando Vargas, a safety analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have law enforcement and prosecutors who do not have the capacity or the will to properly recognize and classify remains. Second, organized [criminals] … have the means to mask violence through disappearances.”

Vargas added that using month-to-month averages of everyday homicides was similarly an issue because it might mask periods when there were especially high levels of killings.

“Using the daily mean renders spikes of violence less visible,” he said.

Detentions and Seizures as Measures of Progress

Where the government can highlight the effectiveness of its safety strategy is on arrests and seizures. Nearly 40,000 individuals were arrested between last October and November 2025 for serious offenses, according to government data. More than 20,000 firearms were confiscated and 311 tonnes of narcotics seized.

“Trump can't accuse President Sheinbaum of inaction, because actually she is accomplishing a lot with these thousands of detentions, thousands of seizures, and all the tactical degrading of organised crime. It’s highly in political terms beneficial,” commented Vargas.

Ongoing Violence and Public Frustration

But despite these actions, Mexico is still plagued by extreme violence, with a number of regions in the throes of cartel-fueled violence. In the previous month there was a high-profile assassination of a well-liked mayor in the state of Michoacan, among 10 mayors murdered in the past 12 months.

A short time later, thousands of youth demonstrated in Mexico City and across the nation to voice their frustration at graft and drug violence.

“The federal government presents [data] in a way to create a picture of security. From a political standpoint it’s very potent, socially it’s highly questionable,” Vargas said.